Monday, April 2, 2018

"The Right Way to Coerce North Korea"

Georgetown University Professor Victor Cha (whom Trump dropped from consideration for Ambassador to South Korea) and Katrin Fraser Katz have a detailed essay in Foreign Affairs (paywall), “The Right Way to Coerce NorthKorea: Ending the Threat Without Going to War”.
The authors believe that a “bloody nose” attack (upon failure of diplomacy and future April 27 talks) would not reduce the long term risk of nuclear attack on the U.S., which Chua believes may be possible after a few more tests. 
He also believe that severe sanctions alone may be viewed as an act of war and notes the decoupling problem that Kim could pressure the US to abandon South Korean defense. He talks about counterproliferation and deterrence.  He also effectively refers to American civilians, in the Korea-Japan region and possibly on the homeland, as bargaining chips. 

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