Saturday, June 21, 2008

Israel rattles its sabres about Iran's rumored nukes, not good news for oil markets or much else


Major media sources report that Israel is running training missions for a possible strike against Iran, should Iran continue its nuclear weapons development program, which Iran claims is for peaceful nuclear power resources only.

However, repeated reports about Israel’s training runs keep on pushing on the price of crude oil. There are recent reports Israel’s actual logistical and military capability of actually carrying out such a raid is in doubt. For example, see the story by Dan Williams today (July 21) on Reuters, here.

AP has a story today by Ali Akbar Dareini to the effect that the Mideast will turn into a witch’s brew if Israel attacks Iran, according to remarks in Dubai by Mohamed El Baadei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, link here, also reprinted today in The New York Times in the World Section.

Recall that the United States and Israel made a covert coordinated attack in Syria September 2007. There is a blog discussion by “Matt” on “1913intel” from April 2008, which already raises speculation about an Israeli attack on Iran, here. This action had been partially justified by intelligence suggesting that some of the nuclear materials in Syria had come from North Korea.

Remember, Israel performed a surgical pre-emptive strike against Iraq’s “Osiraq” nuclear power plant on June 7, 1981. There is an interesting archived “memo” to syndicated columnist George Will from Jude Wanniski dated November 2001 that predicts that the Bush administration will go into Iraq, and will use evidence from decades ago to justify the attack, link here, on Worldnet, link here.

An actual attack by Israel now could indeed throw oil production in the middle East and prices into utter chaos, leading to rationing and various financial failures in the United States. As CNN has often said, “we were warned.” Remember 1973?

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