Sunday, December 14, 2008

Does the U.S. "need" oil dependence to be a super power?

Does dependence on foreign oil actually increase the position of the United States in the world as “The Superpower.” The answer is yes, if you believe the analysis and futuristic scenarios laid out by Daniel W. Drezner, in the Nov/ / Dec. 2008 “National Interest”, on p. 8. The link (for the article dated 10/30/2008 is here.)

He outlines a scenario where the West really does embrace the need for innovation to address climate change and oil tap outs, but where more progressive Middle Eastern countries become even more powerful by diversifying culturally, as Dubai, for example is trying to do. Dubai (the Burj) has ever reason to address climate change since it is building “Palms” communities out in the sea. He thinks that some Muslim countries, even Saudi Arabia, will set up multi-cultural zones and practice strict Islam only in certain areas. They will not become western democracies with western social pluralism, but they will become more tolerant.

He thinks that by 2030 China will be calling the shots, and that some of the intermediate powers, like Russia, will be in for rough sledding as petroleum becomes less important.

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